XRP Whales Accumulate $2B — URPD Shows Clear Path to $2.29

XRP is trading at $1.50 — up 6.95% in the past 24 hours and carrying a market cap of $94.58 billion — as on-chain data confirms what price action is beginning to reflect: a coordinated $2 billion whale accumulation event has built a structural cost-basis floor, and the URPD distribution map suggests the next major resistance cluster sits nearly 53% above current price.

The catalyst was identified by crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts), who flagged the whale move alongside the on-chain URPD data: “Recently, whales accumulated more than $2 billion worth of XRP. Now that demand appears to be showing up in price, with XRP rallying 8.22% in just three days. But on-chain data suggests there may still be room to run.” The structural read from Glassnode’s URPD chart is what separates this rally from noise — it shows where coins actually sit, at what cost basis, and where sellers are most likely to emerge.

Signal 1 — $2 Billion Whale Accumulation: The On-Chain Foundation

Whale accumulation of this magnitude — $2 billion worth of XRP in a concentrated window — is not a routine buy. At XRP’s current price of $1.50, that represents roughly 1.33 billion XRP tokens acquired by large holders at levels spanning the $1.27–$1.60 range. This is confirmed by Glassnode’s URPD data, which shows the heaviest cost-basis clusters at precisely those levels.

The significance: when whales buy at a specific level, they defend it. Their average entry price becomes the market’s support floor — not because of technical analysis, but because those holders have financial incentive to buy any dip back to their cost basis. The $1.60 zone now carries the largest single supply concentration in XRP’s current distribution, making it the most structurally defended level in the market.

The 8.22% three-day rally that followed the accumulation is the market beginning to price in that scarcity signal. Large holders absorbed supply at discount — the float available for spot sellers has thinned. Upward price pressure follows mechanically.

Signal 2 — The URPD: What the On-Chain Distribution Map Actually Shows

The URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), sourced from Glassnode, maps XRP supply against the price at which each unit was last moved — its cost basis. It is not a price prediction tool. It is a supply topology: a map of where coins are anchored and where they are absent.

Ali Martinez’s URPD chart for XRP reveals four critical zones that define the current trade structure:

Source: Glassnode URPD data via @alicharts (X)

The most important structural insight from this chart: the supply gap at $1.49. A low-volume node means price passed through that zone rapidly during a prior move — almost no XRP changed hands there. This creates a near-frictionless corridor. If XRP revisits $1.49 on any pullback, there is minimal supply to absorb — the floor at $1.60 catches it. If price continues upward from current levels, the path toward $1.86 also lacks major resistance clusters until that zone is reached.

Ali Martinez shared the Glassnode URPD chart showing these exact distribution clusters — the $1.60 support wall, the $1.49 gap, and the $2.19–$2.29 resistance ceiling clearly marked by supply density. [CHART_HERE]

What the Data Says — And What It Doesn’t

What it says: Whales established a cost-basis floor between $1.27 and $1.60. The largest supply concentration in XRP’s current URPD sits at $1.60, making it the most structurally defended support level. Overhead resistance begins to build meaningfully only at $1.86, with the primary supply wall at $2.19–$2.29.

What it doesn’t say: The URPD is not a timing tool. It does not predict when price reaches the $2.29 resistance — only that the structural path there carries less friction than the levels above it. Supply gaps do not guarantee momentum continuation.

What to watch for continuation: XRP must hold above $1.60 on any retest. A daily close below that level would signal whale holders are beginning to exit rather than defend — structurally invalidating the accumulation thesis. Sustained volume above $1.86 would confirm the next leg toward $2.19–$2.29 is active. For context on XRP’s broader protocol evolution, see What is XRP 2.0: Everything You Need To Know.

The Path Forward — Intermediate Levels and the Primary Target

Between current price ($1.50) and the primary resistance cluster at $2.19–$2.29, the URPD identifies the following intermediate markers:

• $1.60 — Must hold as support (largest cost-basis anchor). Currently acting as immediate upside to reclaim, then defend.
• $1.86 — First meaningful resistance cluster. Expect partial sell pressure from holders who accumulated at this level during prior distribution phases.
• $2.19–$2.29 — Primary overhead supply wall (~1 billion XRP concentrated here). This is where the structural rally, if sustained, meets its first significant test of distribution pressure.

From current price of $1.50 to the $2.29 ceiling, the implied upside is approximately 53%. That is not a price target — it is the URPD’s structural reading of where supply concentration next becomes material. Similar on-chain structural reads in the broader crypto market have framed multi-week moves; for comparable analysis see how Bitcoin recently reclaimed a key moving average after a structural signal aligned with price.

Bullish Scenario — Defense of $1.60

XRP holds the $1.60 cost-basis zone on any pullback, confirms it as support with a daily close above it, and builds toward $1.86. A clean break through $1.86 with volume opens the $2.19–$2.29 resistance cluster — a 53% move from current price. Precedent: the $2B+ whale cost basis at $1.60 creates financial incentive for large holders to defend aggressively.

Bearish Scenario — Loss of $1.60

A sustained daily close below $1.60 means whales are no longer defending their primary cost-basis level — signaling distribution, not accumulation. Next structural support per the URPD sits at the secondary cluster at $1.31, representing approximately 13% downside from current price. Loss of $1.31 would expose the $1.27 zone and structurally undermine the entire whale accumulation thesis.

Bottom Line

XRP’s 8.22% three-day rally is not speculative froth — it is price catching up to a $2 billion on-chain fact. Whales established a cost-basis floor at $1.27–$1.60, the URPD confirms it as the heaviest supply concentration in the current distribution, and Glassnode’s data shows a near-frictionless supply gap at $1.49 that eliminates meaningful resistance for any pullback. The structural path to $2.29 carries less friction than the levels above it — with only $1.86 offering an intermediate supply cluster worth monitoring. The single level that determines whether this thesis holds or fails is $1.60 — the largest cost-basis anchor in XRP’s current URPD. Watch it on every daily close. And for traders tracking momentum signals across assets, the SUI TD Sequential ’13’ Buy Signal offers a comparable study in how on-chain signals precede confirmed price moves. Whether XRP reaches $2.29 will be answered, in real time, by Glassnode’s URPD as supply clusters thin or thicken with each session. Source: x.com

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Source: Ali Charts · Published by CoinsProbe Markets Desk

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Coinsprobe Markets Desk

Crypto journalist and analyst covering blockchain, DeFi, and digital asset markets at CoinsProbe.

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