- Bond market now prices +125 bps in rate hikes by June 2027, including 4 more 25 bps moves
- Just 9 months ago, markets expected at least 100 bps of rate CUTS over the same window
- Net swing: +225 basis points in Fed policy expectations in under one year — per The Kobeissi Letter
The bond market has executed one of the sharpest macro reversals on record. As of September 29, 2026, futures markets are pricing in four additional 25 basis point rate hikes by June 2027 — a total of +125 basis points inclusive of September’s hike — according to The Kobeissi Letter.
Nine months ago, the same market was pricing at least 100 basis points of rate cuts over that same window. The net swing: +225 basis points in expected Fed policy — from deep easing to aggressive tightening — in under a year.
What Changed
This is not a modest repricing. A 225 bps shift in rate expectations within a single year represents a complete regime change in how institutional bond traders are reading the Federal Reserve’s trajectory. Rate cut bets — which were consensus across Wall Street as recently as early 2026 — have been fully unwound and replaced with hike pricing.
The immediate implication for risk assets is direct: higher-for-longer borrowing costs compress valuations across equities and crypto simultaneously. When the bond market moves this aggressively, it sets the floor for discount rates across every asset class. The US 10-year yield has already been flashing stress signals, and this repricing reinforces that pressure.
For crypto specifically, the macro tailwind that drove much of 2024–2025’s bull thesis — anticipated Fed easing — has now fully reversed. CryptoQuant’s analysis of Bitcoin’s key support levels becomes materially more relevant in a rate-hike environment where liquidity contraction is the baseline, not the tail risk.
Watch the June 2027 Fed Funds futures contract — the specific instrument driving this pricing — as the real-time gauge of whether this four-hike consensus holds or accelerates further.
Source: x.comFrequently Asked Questions
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Source: Kobeissiletter · Published by CoinsProbe Markets Desk
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