Bitcoin Rejected at 50-Day SMA — Analyst Eyes $73,000 as Next Dip-Buy Zone

Bitcoin is trading at $77,568 — down 3.23% in the past 24 hours and sitting on $1.56 trillion in market cap — after a clean rejection at its 50-day moving average flipped that line from support to confirmed resistance. The sell-off is not a random pullback. It has a named trigger and a clear map for where buyers may return.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@alicharts), whose daily chart work has consistently anchored dip-buy decisions to major moving average confluences, published a six-part thread on October 29, 2026, mapping the next actionable levels across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The core conclusion: the 200-day moving average near $73,000 is where he plans to reassess a BTC dip buy — not before.

What Triggered the Sell-Off — Binance Hack Fears and the $2.3B Freeze

The catalyst is specific. Reports spread on October 29 of unusual wallet transfers linked to Binance, with more than $2.3 billion in stablecoins frozen on-chain and a 200 million USDT movement flagged at 5:44 p.m. ET. The reports — later contextualized against Binance’s $151.5B in verified reserves — triggered immediate risk-off selling across major assets. For the full picture on what the on-chain data actually shows, see Binance $151.5B Reserves vs. $6.3B Hack — What the Numbers Actually Show and Binance Hack: $6.3B Drained — How On-Chain Freezes Contained the Damage.

As those reports circulated, Bitcoin was in the process of retesting its 50-day moving average from below — a retest that failed. The 50-day SMA, sitting near $82,500 on the chart, rejected price decisively, and Bitcoin dropped toward $78,000 intraday before continuing lower to the current $77,568.

Signal 1 — Bitcoin: 50-Day SMA Flips to Resistance, 200-Day at $73,000 Is the Line

The daily chart shared by @alicharts shows the mechanics clearly. Bitcoin formed a sharp trough in August–September, rallied into October highs, and then began declining. The most recent sequence — a retest of the 50-day SMA (gray, approximately $82,500) followed by rejection — confirms the 50-day has transitioned from support to resistance. Price is now below that line and declining toward the 200-day SMA (red), which is rising gradually from the lower left and converging near $73,000.

Martinez is explicit: $73,000 is where he plans to reassess a dip buy — not where he has placed a purchase order. The 200-day moving average is the last major trend-defining level before the $67,500 zone visible on the chart. A hold at the 200-day would keep Bitcoin’s macro uptrend structure intact. A failure to hold would open significantly deeper downside.

The BTC spot ETF data adds context. On October 29, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of +$17.1M, with IBIT taking in $12.8M and FBTC adding $10.5M — the fourth consecutive day of inflows, per SoSoValue data. Total ETF net assets stand at $104.27B. That institutional flow has not reversed. It has simply not been large enough to absorb the panic selling triggered by the Binance reports.

Signal 2 — Ethereum: Ascending Broadening Pattern Breaks Down, $2,000 Is the Target

Ethereum’s chart tells a structurally separate story. On the daily timeframe, ETH formed a right-angled ascending broadening formation — a pattern defined by a flat upper boundary and a rising lower trendline. That lower trendline has now broken. Price at time of writing is at $2,273.86, confirmed below the $2,391.25 support level, below the $2,480.19 zone, and below the rising lower boundary of the pattern itself.

The breakdown from this formation points toward the $1,976.65 level — the zone Martinez identifies as a potential buying opportunity if ETH finds support there. This is not a guaranteed bottom call. It is a map: the pattern’s measured implication lands near $2,000, and that is where the analyst will reassess. The key levels on the chart — $2,806.85 at the top, $1,976.65 at the base — define the full range of the structure that has now broken.

Signal 3 — XRP: Mid-Channel Support Lost, $1.00 Lower Boundary Now in View

XRP has been ranging inside a horizontal parallel channel since February 2024, bounded by $1.55 at the top and $1.00 at the base. The midline near $1.40 — which had acted as interior support — has been lost. XRP is now at $1.25, flagged on the chart with a current-price box, sitting between the broken $1.40 midline above and the $1.00 lower channel boundary below.

Martinez’s chart marks an upward arrow near $1.00, indicating that level is the next watch zone if $1.25 fails to hold. The structure is not a bullish setup at this moment — it is a ranging asset that has lost its mid-range footing and is sliding toward the channel floor. A reclaim of $1.40 would be the first signal that the structure is repairing. Absent that, $1.00 remains the deeper support.

Macro Backdrop — FOMC and Upcoming Data

The macro calendar is active. Markets are pricing a 74.4% probability of the Fed holding rates at 4.00%–4.25% at the December 9 FOMC meeting, per SoSoValue data. CPI figures arrive on November 9 — the next hard macro input that could shift the risk-on/risk-off calculus for crypto. With Bitcoin already under pressure from a security-driven sell-off, a hot CPI print would remove one of the few remaining bullish tailwinds. A soft number could accelerate the dip-buy case at $73,000.

Strategy (MSTR) holds 848,517 BTC as of October 19 and added 267 BTC for $22.1M in its latest purchase — a signal that at least one institutional buyer has not changed its accumulation posture despite the volatility. That context matters, but it is not a price floor.

The broader context on this event: crypto losses have risen sharply in 2026. For the full data, see Crypto Losses Hit $9B in 2026 — 750 Incidents, Up 133% From 2025.

The Dip-Buy Map — What @alicharts Is Watching

Dip-buy map per @alicharts six-part thread, October 29, 2026

These are not guaranteed reversal points. Martinez frames each as a zone to reassess — levels where the risk/reward shifts sufficiently to consider positioning, not automatic buy signals. The 200-day SMA at $73,000 for Bitcoin, $1,976.65 for Ethereum, and $1.00 for XRP are the analyst’s stated coordinates. Whether price reaches them, holds them, or passes through them is the open question.

At $77,568, Bitcoin is approximately 6.2% above the 200-day SMA at $73,000. That gap can close quickly in a risk-off environment driven by security fears — or stabilize if the Binance situation is resolved without further escalation. The 50-day SMA near $82,500 is now the first level that must be reclaimed before any bullish structure can be re-established.

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Source: Ali Charts · Published by CoinsProbe Markets Desk

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Coinsprobe Markets Desk

Crypto journalist and analyst covering blockchain, DeFi, and digital asset markets at CoinsProbe.

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