Bitcoin Whales Accumulate as Retail Sells — Long-Term Chart Signals Major $BTC Bottom?

Bitcoin’s current setup is being read by on-chain analysts and long-term technical analysts as the same environment — from two completely different analytical frameworks — arriving at the same conclusion simultaneously.

Bitcoin is trading at $64,351 — up +0.64% over 7 days and +2.52% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $1.29 trillion. The price consolidation near $64,000–$65,000 has now persisted for several sessions — a range that the on-chain and technical signals below suggest may be a historically significant accumulation zone rather than a prelude to further downside.

Whale Accumulation vs Retail Exit: The Classic Bottom Pattern

Santiment data reveals a divergence between large and small Bitcoin holders that has historically been one of the more reliable signals of a market approaching a durable low:

What the divergence means:

While retail participants holding less than 0.01 BTC have reduced their holdings by -0.59% — the sharpest drop in micro-holder balances since December 2024 — wallets in the 10–10,000 BTC range have been simultaneously increasing their holdings by +0.34%. Supply is transferring from small, sentiment-reactive holders to large, conviction-driven participants.

The Coldcard fallout as a catalyst:

Santiment specifically notes that this divergence coincides with the Coldcard hardware wallet entropy flaw — where a firmware vulnerability led to an estimated 1,360 BTC (~$87 million) being swept from affected wallets. The resulting fear and uncertainty in the retail community appear to have accelerated small holder selling — while larger, more informed participants have been absorbing that supply rather than joining the exit.

Santiment’s probability assessment:

The data provider suggests that this specific pattern — key stakeholders accumulating while retail reduces exposure amid FUD — historically increases the probability of Bitcoin moving toward $70,000+ rather than revisiting levels below $60,000. This is not a guaranteed outcome — it is a probability assessment based on prior instances where the same divergence appeared.

Monthly Oscillator at Historic Bottom Zone

Analyst @JamesEastonUK shared a full-history monthly Bitcoin chart that provides the longest possible timeframe context for the current momentum reading — and the signal it is producing is one that has appeared at every major Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2011.

Reading the chart:

The chart displays Bitcoin’s price action (right axis) alongside a momentum oscillator (purple line, left axis) that tracks the rate of momentum change on the monthly timeframe. The current reading sits at approximately -46.41 — in extreme oversold territory.

The five historic bottom zones — marked by red dots:

The chart’s red dots mark each prior instance where the monthly oscillator reached the extreme oversold zone visible at the bottom of the indicator panel. These occurred at:

The current reading in context:

The monthly oscillator has now dropped to the same extreme level that appeared at each of the four prior major Bitcoin cycle bottoms — with each prior instance followed by a substantial multi-month to multi-year recovery. The blue horizontal lines on the chart mark the upper resistance zone (approximately 100 on the oscillator) and the extreme oversold zone (approximately -70 to -80) — with the current reading sitting near the lower boundary.

The current position on the price chart:

Bitcoin at approximately $60,000–$64,000 on the right axis corresponds to the current oscillator reading — visible at the rightmost point of the chart where the purple oscillator line is descending toward the extreme oversold zone marked by the lower cyan horizontal line.

@JamesEastonUK’s comment accompanying the chart was direct and unambiguous:

“Most will buy higher, MUCH higher.”

The implication is consistent with every prior red dot on the chart — each appeared at a point where the majority of market participants were reducing or avoiding exposure, and each preceded a significant appreciation in Bitcoin’s value.

Why Both Signals Point the Same Direction

The on-chain divergence and the monthly technical reading are measuring fundamentally different things — yet both are identifying the same environment:

Santiment’s whale vs retail divergence measures actual holder behaviour — who is buying and who is selling in real time. It is a present-tense signal about current market participant activity.

@JamesEastonUK’s monthly oscillator measures momentum on the longest available timeframe — comparing current momentum conditions to every prior cycle in Bitcoin’s 15-year history. It is a historical context signal about where in the cycle the current reading appears.

Two frameworks. One conclusion: the current zone has historically been where informed accumulation occurs before the broader market realises it missed the bottom.

This convergence adds to the body of evidence we have been building throughout July and August 2026 — including the MVRV at the 5th percentile, the Realized Profit vs Loss crossover approaching, the 147-day weekly bullish divergence, and the Structural Market Bands support zone — each measuring the same underlying dynamic from a different angle.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin at $64,351 is sitting at the intersection of a Santiment-confirmed whale accumulation signal and a monthly momentum oscillator reading that has matched every major Bitcoin cycle bottom since 2011. Retail is selling. Whales are buying. The monthly oscillator is at extreme historic lows. These three observations are not individually conclusive — but their simultaneous appearance is the kind of convergence that, in prior cycles, has characterised the late accumulation phase before the next major directional move.

@JamesEastonUK’s observation — “Most will buy higher, MUCH higher” — is the compressed version of what the full historical chart is showing. Every prior red dot on that monthly chart was followed by a period where that statement proved accurate.

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Written by

Nilesh Hembade

Nilesh Hembade is the Founder and Author of Coinsprobe, with 5+ years of experience in cryptocurrency and blockchain. Since launching the platform in 2023, he delivers daily, research-driven insights through market analysis, on-chain data, and technical research. His work has been featured on Binance, Bitget, and CoinMarketCap. He is also certified through Binance Academy (NFT Certificate).

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