- HYPE is trading at $62.40 — up +10.08% in 24 hours — just 3.2% below its ATH of $64.59 — with a market cap of approximately $15.84 billion and +145.41% year-to-date.
- Despite yesterday's major unlock event — HYPE has staged a powerful recovery from lows near $56.30 back above $62 — with on-chain data showing key wallets holding rather than selling.
- A Right-Angled Descending Broadening Wedge is forming on the daily chart — with HYPE reclaiming the 100-day MA at $59.81 and pushing toward the $64.80–$65.00 neckline resistance.
- Bullish target: $74 (+18% from current levels) on a confirmed neckline breakout. Invalidation: sustained break below the 100 MA at $59.80.
Twenty-four hours ago, the narrative around HYPE was dominated by unlock FUD — $230 million in tokens unlocking, Loracle’s documented selling history, and a price that had dropped to $56.30 in anticipation of the supply event. As we covered in our HYPE $230M unlock day analysis, the central question was whether institutional ETF inflows could absorb the unlock selling without breaking the structure.
The answer — at least so far — is yes. HYPE has recovered +10.08% in 24 hours from the unlock lows back to $62.40 — just 3.2% below its $64.59 all-time high — and the on-chain data reveals a picture that is significantly more constructive than the unlock FUD narrative suggested.
How the Unlock Actually Played Out — On-Chain Reality
On-chain analyst @MavenHL has provided the most detailed breakdown of what actually happened with yesterday’s unlock wallets — and the picture is more nuanced than the FUD suggested:
Galaxy Digital — 1M HYPE unstaked: Galaxy Digital unstaked 1 million HYPE and moved it to their HyperEVM OTC address — a move that @MavenHL notes is potentially related to Grayscale ETF-related activity rather than open market selling. An OTC address transfer is fundamentally different from an exchange deposit — it suggests structured institutional activity rather than a market dump.
Loracle — 893K HYPE unstaked: Loracle unstaked 893,000 HYPE and moved tokens to HyperEVM — the wallet with the documented selling history we flagged in our unlock day analysis. Notably, the move to HyperEVM rather than a direct exchange deposit has reduced immediate selling concerns — though the market remains watchful for potential weekend selling activity.
Amber Group-linked wallet — 508K HYPE unstaked: An Amber Group-linked wallet unstaked 508,000 HYPE and is still holding spot — no selling activity confirmed.
Unknown whale — 430K HYPE accumulated at $36.80: A whale who aggressively accumulated 430,000 HYPE at an average of $36.80 is holding — sitting on approximately +69% unrealised gains at current prices. A holder with this cost basis has no urgency to sell at $62.
The takeaway: Of the four major wallets involved in yesterday’s unlock — one moved to an OTC address (potentially institutional), one moved to HyperEVM without confirmed selling, one is holding spot, and one is holding with a massive unrealised profit. The feared cascade of aggressive market selling has not materialised.
The market is now watching Loracle specifically over the weekend — while simultaneously anticipating Grayscale ETF inflows in the coming week as the next major bullish catalyst.
Technical Setup — Right-Angled Descending Broadening Wedge
The price recovery from $56.30 to $62.40 is not just a relief bounce — it is occurring within a well-defined technical structure that is resolving in the bulls’ favour.
The Pattern — Right-Angled Descending Broadening Wedge
A Right-Angled Descending Broadening Wedge is characterised by a flat upper resistance line and a descending lower trendline — creating a widening pattern that typically resolves to the upside when buyers hold the lower boundary and drive price back toward the flat resistance.
How the pattern has developed on HYPE:
Lower trendline bounce — $55.90 — Price found strong support and bounced decisively from the lower trendline near $55.90 — the level that defined the pattern’s floor and where buyers stepped in aggressively during the unlock FUD. This is the most critical confirmation the pattern has produced — the lower boundary held.
100-day MA reclaimed — $59.81 — HYPE has successfully reclaimed the 100-day moving average at $59.81 — which now acts as key dynamic support. A moving average reclaim of this kind — from below to above on a sustained basis — is the technical confirmation that the trend has shifted from corrective to constructive.
Pushing toward neckline — $64.80–$65.00 — The current price of $62.40 is approaching the flat upper resistance of the broadening wedge — the $64.80–$65.00 neckline zone. This is the level that, if broken and retested, would complete the pattern and activate the measured move target.
What’s Next — Two Scenarios
Bullish Scenario
HYPE sustains the 100-day MA at $59.81 as support and builds toward a decisive breakout above the $64.80–$65.00 neckline. A clean break — confirmed by a retest where the neckline holds as support rather than resistance — would activate the broadening wedge’s measured move:
| Target | Level | Upside from Current |
|---|---|---|
| Neckline breakout | $65.00 | ~+4% |
| New ATH | $65.00+ | Beyond prior ATH |
| Measured move target | $74 | ~+18.6% |
The Grayscale ETF inflow catalyst — expected in the coming week as the pending $GHYP product moves closer to approval — provides the institutional demand trigger that could push HYPE through the neckline with sufficient volume to confirm the breakout.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the 100-day MA at $59.80 on a sustained daily close would delay the bullish setup — signalling the broadening wedge pattern needs more time to develop or is breaking down. In this scenario Loracle weekend selling or broader macro risk-off from the ongoing US-Iran tensions could push HYPE back toward the $55–$56 lower support zone for another test of the pattern’s lower trendline.
The Institutional Catalyst on the Horizon
The technical setup is being supported by an institutional pipeline that continues to build. As we detailed in our Grayscale ETF Amendment #3 article and confirmed in the ICE CEO “bigger than NASDAQ” coverage, the institutional attention around HYPE has reached a level that makes each week a potential catalyst for the next major inflow event.
Galaxy Digital’s OTC address transfer — potentially related to Grayscale ETF activity — is the most specific near-term signal that institutional demand infrastructure is being positioned ahead of product launches rather than reacting after them.
Bottom Line
HYPE’s recovery from the $56.30 unlock lows back to $62.40 in 24 hours is the most important data point of the week — not because of the percentage gain, but because of what the on-chain wallet behaviour reveals. The feared unlock cascade did not materialise. Galaxy Digital moved to an OTC address. Amber Group is holding. The unknown whale is holding. And Loracle’s move to HyperEVM rather than a direct exchange has reduced the immediate selling risk.
The Right-Angled Descending Broadening Wedge is resolving in the bulls’ favour. The 100 MA is reclaimed. The neckline at $64.80–$65.00 is the next target. And a confirmed breakout above it — ideally with Grayscale ETF inflows as the catalyst — points to a $74 measured move target and a new all-time high.
Watch $65 as the trigger. Watch $59.81 as the floor. The setup is in place.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why has HYPE recovered so strongly after the unlock?
On-chain data shows the major unlock wallets are holding rather than selling — Galaxy Digital moved to an OTC address (potentially for Grayscale ETF activity), Amber Group is holding spot, and the unknown whale accumulator is holding with +69% unrealised gains. The feared cascade selling did not materialise.
What is HYPE’s price target if the breakout confirms?
A clean breakout and retest of the $64.80–$65.00 neckline activates the measured move target of $74 — representing approximately +18.6% upside from the current $62.40 level.
Will Hyperliquid ($HYPE) reach $100?
Reaching $100 would represent roughly +60% upside from current prices (~$62.55). While not impossible in a strong bull market — especially with continued ETF inflows, platform growth, and institutional adoption — it would likely require a confirmed breakout to new ATHs first, followed by strong momentum. Most analysts see $74–$85 as more realistic near-term targets. Long-term, $100+ remains possible if Hyperliquid maintains its dominance in decentralized perps.
The opinions and market insights shared on CoinsProbe represent the views of individual authors based on prevailing market conditions at the time of publication. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk and volatility. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and seek professional financial advice before making investment decisions. CoinsProbe and its contributors do not accept responsibility for financial losses or decisions made based on published content.
CoinsProbe may publish sponsored articles, affiliate links, or promotional collaborations. All sponsored material is clearly labeled to maintain transparency with our audience. Our editorial decisions remain fully independent, and advertising partnerships do not influence reviews, rankings, or published opinions.
Since 2023, CoinsProbe has delivered reliable insights on cryptocurrency, blockchain, and digital assets. Our content is created by experienced researchers and analysts who follow strict editorial standards focused on accuracy, transparency, and credibility. Every article is carefully reviewed and verified using trusted sources and current market data. We provide unbiased analysis and timely updates covering everything from emerging crypto projects to major industry developments.
