XRP Near $1: Will New Wallet Surge Turn Into Real Buying Pressure or Just Short-Term FOMO?

XRP is sitting at one of the more genuinely uncertain technical and sentiment-driven junctures of 2026. The token is holding just above the psychologically critical $1.00 level after touching a 19-month low near $1.01 on June 25 — and two competing signals are now pulling in different directions: a sharp surge in new wallet creation and bullish sentiment on one side, and specific, well-defined on-chain support levels that could come into play if that optimism fails to hold.

XRP at a Glance — June 30, 2026

Fresh Wallet Growth and Rising Bullish Sentiment

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, XRP is showing a notable divergence between price action and network activity — the kind of pattern that often draws close attention from traders trying to determine whether genuine accumulation is underway.

The wallet creation surge:

On June 29–30, the XRP Ledger recorded 4,941 new wallets created in a single day — the strongest network growth in over three months. This kind of spike in fresh wallet activity, occurring specifically while price hovers near a multi-month low, is the type of signal traders watch closely as a potential early indicator of new participants entering at depressed valuations.

The sentiment shift:

Alongside the wallet growth, Santiment also noted a sharp rise in positive social sentiment — with 3.7 bullish comments for every 1 bearish comment recorded, representing the highest bullish-to-bearish ratio in three months.

Why traders are watching the $1.00–$1.05 zone:

Many traders are interpreting this specific price zone as a potential dip-buying opportunity, citing several supporting factors:

• Historical rebound patterns — XRP has shown a tendency to find buying interest around prior psychologically significant levels in past cycles.
• Ongoing ETF and institutional narratives — As we covered in our XRP ascending triangle and $1.44B ETF inflows article, institutional flow data has been a recurring positive narrative thread for XRP throughout the year.
• Accumulation by larger holders — Some on-chain observers point to evidence of bigger wallets accumulating during the recent decline, consistent with the broader new-wallet-creation trend Santiment has flagged.

The important caveat: Santiment is explicit that it remains genuinely unclear whether this burst of new wallet activity will translate into sustained buying pressure — or whether it simply represents short-term FOMO that fades as quickly as it appeared. This distinction matters enormously for how the current setup ultimately resolves, and it is not one that can be determined from the wallet creation data alone.

Key On-Chain Support Levels — The URPD Data

While the wallet and sentiment data tells one part of the story, technical analyst @alicharts has mapped out the specific price levels that matter most if the bullish sentiment fails to hold — using UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data.

Understanding URPD: This methodology identifies the specific historical price points where large volumes of an asset previously changed hands — these levels often function as significant support or resistance zones, because they represent price points where a meaningful number of holders established their cost basis, making them natural areas of psychological and behavioural significance for future price action.

The level that just broke — $1.06:

This was acting as a major volume block, with over 830 million XRP having previously changed hands at this price — and it has now been breached, with XRP slipping to its current $1.04. This is a significant development: $1.06 was the first meaningful test for whether the recent bullish sentiment could translate into a genuine technical floor, and that test has failed to hold so far.

With $1.06 broken — the next support levels in focus:

These levels represent progressively larger historical transaction volumes — meaning each one carries meaningful weight as a potential support zone, given the substantial number of holders whose cost basis sits at or near these specific prices.

Market Context — A Difficult 2026 for XRP

XRP has been under sustained pressure throughout 2026, trading well below its previous highs for much of the year. The recent dip below $1.10 — and the subsequent test of the 19-month low near $1.01 — has genuinely tested investor confidence.

Yet the combination of rising new wallet creation and improving social sentiment suggests at least some market participants continue to see value at current depressed levels — even as the broader year-to-date performance (-43%+) reflects a token that has struggled significantly relative to where it started 2026.

XRP continues to benefit from its established, longstanding use case in cross-border payments — a fundamental utility narrative that has remained relatively constant even as price has fluctuated dramatically. Ongoing developments in the broader regulatory and institutional landscape also continue to factor into the longer-term narrative surrounding the token, independent of short-term price action.

Two Scenarios From Here

Bullish Scenario — Wallet Growth Translates to Real Demand

If the surge in new wallet creation reflects genuine accumulation rather than short-term speculation, sustained buying interest combined with continued positive social sentiment could fuel a rebound toward the $1.10–$1.20 zone in the short term — consistent with the technical recovery levels.

Bearish Scenario — Deeper URPD Levels Come Into Play

With $1.06 already broken and XRP now trading at $1.04, the next meaningful test is whether the psychologically critical $1.00 level holds. If the current optimism proves to have been short-term FOMO rather than durable accumulation, a sustained break below $1.00 would open the door to the deeper URPD-based support levels at $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51.

Bottom Line

XRP sits at a genuinely critical juncture — the $1.06 support level that analyst @alicharts flagged has already broken, with the token now trading at $1.04. This is the first concrete sign that the recent surge in wallet creation and bullish sentiment has not yet been enough to hold the nearest technical floor. New wallet creation hit its strongest pace in over three months, and social sentiment turned notably more bullish — but Santiment’s own caution is proving relevant in real time: it remains unclear whether this represents real, sustained accumulation or simply short-term FOMO.

This break also complicates the more optimistic technical picture we covered in our XRP two bullish signals article, where a TD Sequential buy signal and Morning Star Doji pattern had pointed toward a potential rebound toward $1.30 — a setup that now needs $1.00 to hold first before that thesis can stay credible. The picture is further complicated by institutional positioning, as we noted in our Goldman Sachs Solana and XRP ETF exit article, where the bank reduced its XRP ETF exposure earlier in the year in favor of Hyperliquid.

With $1.06 gone, $1.00 is now the level that matters most. A sustained break below it would open the door to the deeper, well-documented URPD support levels — $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51. Conversely, if the new wallet activity proves durable and buyers defend $1.00, a rebound toward $1.10–$1.20 remains the bullish path.

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Written by

Nilesh Hembade

Nilesh Hembade is the Founder and Author of Coinsprobe, with 5+ years of experience in cryptocurrency and blockchain. Since launching the platform in 2023, he delivers daily, research-driven insights through market analysis, on-chain data, and technical research. His work has been featured on Binance, Bitget, and CoinMarketCap. He is also certified through Binance Academy (NFT Certificate).

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