- Brent crude tops $117.38/barrel — up +3.96% — first print above $117 since March 19th per @KobeissiLetter
- Catalyst: Iran Revolutionary Guard claims 7 tankers disabled near Strait of Hormuz; Trump-Netanyahu strike talks resume
- Brent is $2 from its yearly high; break above $119 would mark fresh multi-year highs and reset inflation expectations
- Rising oil prices are pushing inflation expectations higher, threatening to delay central bank rate cuts
Brent crude oil has surged above $117 per barrel for the first time since March 19th, driven by renewed fears that the United States will resume strikes on Iran — a scenario that markets are pricing as a direct threat to Strait of Hormuz oil flows.
The move, flagged by @KobeissiLetter, puts Brent crude just $2 below its high of the year. At the time of writing, Brent is trading at approximately $117.38, up $4.47 (+3.96%) on the session — heading for a third consecutive weekly gain.
The catalyst is geopolitical, not supply-side. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it had disabled seven tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, reports indicate President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have resumed discussions over potential strikes following the U.S. midterm elections. The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial share of global oil shipments — any disruption to transit would tighten supply immediately.
President Trump called Iran’s reported vessel attacks “lies intended to raise oil prices” ahead of elections. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz stated the U.S. could maintain its blockade of Iranian ports “for the foreseeable future.” No final decision on resumed major strikes has been confirmed — reports describe renewed action as under active consideration, not as an executed order.
The macro implication is significant. Rising energy costs are pushing inflation expectations higher at a moment when central banks remain rate-sensitive. Persistent oil above $115–$117 creates stagflationary pressure — higher prices without growth acceleration — which could delay rate cuts or keep monetary policy restrictive longer than markets have priced. That dynamic carries direct consequences for risk assets, including crypto. The S&P 500’s concentration in rate-sensitive equities makes the oil-inflation linkage particularly relevant for broader portfolio positioning.
The $119 annual high is now the sole structural ceiling. A sustained close above it would mark fresh multi-year highs for Brent and materially change the inflation narrative heading into the next FOMC window. Watch that level — a confirmed break opens a leg higher with no technical resistance until the $125 region.
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Source: Kobeissiletter · Published by CoinsProbe Markets Desk
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