- Bitcoin is trading at $64,101 — down -26.75% year-to-date and well below its all-time high of $126,198 — as on-chain and cycle analysts remain divided on whether the bottom has already formed.
- CryptoQuant's Cycle Momentum indicator — shared by @gaah_im — shows bear cycle momentum still negative at -11.4, suggesting the bear market is not yet complete without a confirmed bullish breakout above the neutral zone.
- Analyst Jackis (@i_am_jackis) presents a genuinely balanced picture — citing the Power Law support band, oversold weekly RSI, and the 200-week MA retest as bullish signals, against an untested MVRV realised price and Balanced Price near $39,000 as bearish signals.
- The most concerning bearish data point: BTC has not yet retested the realised price in this cycle — something that has happened in every prior bear market — with historical precedent pointing to a potential final leg down toward ~$32,000 if that pattern repeats.
Bitcoin sits at a genuine analytical crossroads. At $64,101 — down nearly 27% year-to-date — the question dominating serious on-chain analysis right now is not whether Bitcoin is cheap relative to its all-time high, but whether the structural bear market dynamics that have characterised every prior cycle have actually run their full course yet.
Two independent analyses — one from CryptoQuant’s cycle momentum framework, one from analyst Jackis’s deliberately balanced multi-metric review — arrive at a similar conclusion: the data genuinely supports both outcomes, and the resolution depends on specific levels and confirmations that have not yet occurred.
Bitcoin at a Glance — June 22, 2026
CryptoQuant’s Cycle Momentum — Bear Market Not Yet Complete
Analysis shared by @gaah_im through CryptoQuant centres on Bitcoin’s Cycle Momentum indicator — a tool that combines bull cycle momentum (green) and bear cycle momentum (red) to track the underlying directional strength of the current market phase.
The current reading:
The bear cycle momentum remains negative at -11.4 — and critically, price has not yet broken above the neutral zone in a confirmed bullish pattern. This combination — negative momentum plus no confirmed neutral zone breakout — is the basis for the conclusion that the bear market has not yet fully run its course.
The analysis frames the historical significance of the current price zone directly:
“Historically, this range has formed the main support levels for BTC. However, to confirm a trend reversal, the price must form a bullish pattern with the indicator breaking above the Neutral zone.”
What this means in practice: the current price level is not being dismissed as insignificant — it has historically functioned as genuine support in prior cycles. But the distinction CryptoQuant’s analysis draws is important: testing a historical support level is not the same as confirming a reversal. That confirmation specifically requires both price strength and a corresponding break above the indicator’s neutral zone — neither of which has happened yet.
BTC Bullish Case
Analyst Jackis (@i_am_jackis) presented a genuinely even-handed breakdown — laying out the strongest evidence on both sides rather than advocating for a single conclusion.
The bullish signals:
Long-term Power Law support band — Bitcoin is currently sitting directly on a major historical support level defined by the Power Law model — a framework that has marked previous cycle bottoms with notable consistency across Bitcoin’s history.
BTC Bearish Case
Against these bullish signals, Jackis highlights three specific metrics suggesting the correction may not yet be complete:
MVRV — the realised price has not been retested
This is the most significant bearish data point in the entire analysis. MVRV (Market Value vs Realised Value) compares Bitcoin’s current market price to the average price at which all coins last moved on-chain. Critically — Bitcoin has not yet retested the realised price in this cycle — and this specific retest has occurred in every prior bear market without exception.
Historical precedent for what happens after reaching levels similar to today’s: a final -40% to -50% drop from current levels. If that exact historical pattern repeats — the implied target would be approximately $32,000.
This is the single data point most responsible for the genuinely divided sentiment among serious analysts right now — because it represents a historical pattern that has held through every previous cycle without exception, and current price action has not yet satisfied it.
200 Daily MA Deviation Bands
The current oversold boundary on this indicator sits around $42,000 — and notably, this boundary could move lower the longer the current correction persists, since the moving average itself continues adjusting downward as the correction extends in duration.
Balanced Price
This metric suggests potential further downside toward the $39,000 area — sitting meaningfully below current price and broadly consistent with the kind of final capitulation zone that the MVRV historical pattern also points toward.
Why the MVRV Signal Carries So Much Weight
Among all the metrics discussed — the unretested MVRV realised price deserves particular attention because of its perfect historical track record. Every single prior Bitcoin bear market has included a period where price fell to or below the realised price — the average on-chain cost basis of the entire market.
The fact that this specific retest has not yet occurred in the current cycle is the central reason serious analysts are not yet willing to declare the bottom confirmed, even with Bitcoin sitting on multiple other historically bullish technical signals simultaneously.
This connects directly to the broader on-chain picture we have been tracking — including our coverage of 10.46 million BTC currently held at a loss and the Wyckoff Phase B accumulation structure that has been forming. The MVRV signal adds a specific, historically consistent threshold to that broader accumulation narrative — one that has not yet been crossed.
Macro catalysts add another layer of uncertainty to the timeline. As we covered in our US-Iran talks “encouraging progress” article, Bitcoin has shown it can rally sharply on genuine geopolitical de-escalation — meaning a sustained risk-on macro environment could potentially help Bitcoin satisfy the bullish breakout conditions before the bearish MVRV scenario has a chance to play out fully.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin at $64,101 is genuinely sitting at one of the most analytically divided junctures of the current cycle. CryptoQuant’s Cycle Momentum indicator shows the bear market has not yet confirmed a reversal. Jackis’s balanced analysis shows Bitcoin testing multiple historically significant bullish support levels — the Power Law band, oversold weekly RSI with bullish divergence, and the 200-week MA — simultaneously with one historically unbroken bearish signal still unresolved: the MVRV realised price has not yet been retested in this cycle.
The historical precedent for what happens when that retest finally occurs points toward a final -40% to -50% leg lower, with a potential target near $32,000 if the pattern that has held through every prior cycle repeats exactly.
Watch whether Bitcoin’s Cycle Momentum indicator breaks above its neutral zone with genuine price strength — that specific confirmation, more than any single support level test, is what separates a confirmed bottom from a temporary bounce within an unfinished bear market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does CryptoQuant’s Cycle Momentum indicator show?
The indicator currently shows bear cycle momentum at -11.4. It suggests the bear market phase is not fully over until Bitcoin breaks above the neutral zone with a bullish pattern.
What is the bullish case for Bitcoin right now?
Bitcoin is testing the long-term Power Law support band, showing oversold weekly RSI with bullish divergence, and retesting the 200-week moving average — all historically significant bottom signals.
What is the most concerning bearish signal for Bitcoin?
MVRV has not yet retested the realised price in this cycle — something that has occurred in every prior bear market, historically followed by a final -40% to -50% drop, with a potential target near $32,000.
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