Bitcoin 1-3 Month Holders Hit 24% Unrealized Profit — Highest Since May 2025

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $86,365 — up 3.13% in the last 24 hours — with a market capitalization of $1.73 trillion. Beneath the price move, on-chain data from CryptoQuant is registering a signal that puts the current rally in sharper context: the cohort of traders who bought Bitcoin within the last one to three months is now sitting on its largest unrealized profits since May 2025.

CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com) published the finding on October 2, 2026: “Bitcoin traders are sitting on their largest unrealized profits since May 2025. The 1-3 month holder cohort now has an average Unrealized Profit Margin of 24%. That puts recent buyers in a highly profitable position.” That reading is not a marginal improvement — it marks a full reset of the cohort’s profitability after months of compression.

What the 1-3 Month Holder NUPL Actually Measures

The metric in question is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), segmented by age cohort. For the 1-3 month holder group, NUPL captures the average difference between what recent buyers paid and what Bitcoin is worth today — expressed as a percentage of current price. A reading of 24% means the average buyer who entered the market between one and three months ago is sitting on a paper gain of 24% on their position.

This matters because the 1-3 month cohort represents the market’s most recent demand. These are not long-term holders who have been through multiple cycles — these are traders and investors who made a decision in the last quarter. When this cohort moves from loss into meaningful profit, two things become possible simultaneously: sell pressure (as profitable holders consider exits) and a confidence signal (demonstrating that recent buyers have been rewarded, which can attract additional demand).

Where 24% Sits in Historical Context

The CryptoQuant chart covering Bitcoin’s multi-year NUPL history for this cohort places the current 24% reading in an important position. It is the highest print since May 2025 — but it remains well below the extreme readings that historically coincided with cycle tops. The 2021 peak cycle saw this cohort’s NUPL reach levels above 100-200%, representing full euphoria. At 24%, the current reading is a mid-cycle signal, not an overheating indicator.

Previous NUPL spikes into the 50-100% range for this cohort coincided with local tops — periods where recent buyers had accumulated enough paper profit to trigger broad sell-side activity. The current reading of 24% has not reached that threshold. The blue moving average in CryptoQuant’s chart is trending upward alongside price recovery, suggesting the direction of travel is constructive without yet being extreme.

For additional context on how on-chain demand signals are behaving alongside this profit reading, CoinsProbe’s earlier analysis of the 980K BTC demand divergence remains relevant — price and demand are not always moving in the same direction, and the NUPL reading must be read alongside active accumulation data.

The Dual Implication — Sell Pressure and Confidence Signal

A 24% unrealized profit margin for the 1-3 month cohort is not a one-dimensional bullish signal. It presents two competing forces. First, holders sitting on 24% paper gains have a rational incentive to take profit — particularly if price stalls near current levels or at prior resistance zones in the $105,000–$110,000 range. If a sufficient portion of this cohort exits simultaneously, it creates supply that can cap or temporarily reverse the rally.

Second, a profitable recent-buyer cohort is a sign of structural health. When the traders who bought most recently are underwater, it creates fragile market conditions — any further decline accelerates panic selling. When they are profitable, the base of holders is more stable. The current 24% reading suggests the rally has done enough work to move recent buyers from vulnerability into strength.

CryptoQuant’s own MVRV Z-Score analysis has been tracking a related dynamic. As covered in CoinsProbe’s report on Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score reclaiming its 365-day average, multiple valuation metrics are simultaneously pointing toward a mid-cycle recovery rather than an overextended top.

The Level to Watch — When NUPL Becomes a Warning

The critical threshold to monitor going forward is a NUPL acceleration toward 50% for this cohort. CryptoQuant’s historical chart makes clear that previous local tops were preceded by 1-3 month holder NUPL approaching or exceeding 50-100%. The current reading of 24% leaves a meaningful buffer before that warning zone activates.

If Bitcoin’s price stalls and the 1-3 month cohort begins distributing, NUPL will compress back toward zero or negative. A return to negative NUPL for this group — meaning recent buyers are underwater — would represent a significant deterioration in market structure. Conversely, if price continues higher and NUPL expands toward the 40-50% range, traders should begin treating the signal as a caution flag rather than a confirmation.

Bullish Scenario

If Bitcoin holds above $85,000 and the 1-3 month holder NUPL continues expanding toward 40-50%, it would confirm that recent demand is being sustained — historically consistent with continuation toward prior resistance at $105,000–$110,000. A stable or rising NUPL moving average would reinforce this read.

Bearish Scenario

If price fails to hold current levels and the 1-3 month cohort NUPL compresses back toward zero, it would signal that recent buyers are losing their profitable position — removing a key support layer from market structure. A negative NUPL reading for this cohort would mark a materially weaker setup than current conditions suggest.

Bitcoin’s 1-3 month holder NUPL reaching 24% — the highest since May 2025 — is a mid-cycle confirmation, not a top signal. CryptoQuant’s data shows recent buyers are profitable and structurally supported, but the reading remains well below the 50-100%+ extremes that preceded prior local tops. The metric to track in the sessions ahead: whether NUPL for this cohort continues expanding or begins compressing. Expansion toward 50% warrants caution. Compression back toward zero warrants defensive positioning. At $86,365, Bitcoin is in a zone where the on-chain profitability signal is constructive — but the 24% reading is the setup, not the conclusion.

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Source: CryptoQuant · Published by CoinsProbe Markets Desk

Written by

Coinsprobe Markets Desk

Crypto journalist and analyst covering blockchain, DeFi, and digital asset markets at CoinsProbe.

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