Can Bitcoin’s Positive ETF Inflows and Breakout Structure Fuel $BTC Above $100K?

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $100M net inflow on Jan 15
• Historical ETF inflows now exceed $58B
• BTC confirmed an ascending triangle breakout
• Price currently retesting breakout support near $95K
• Measured move projects upside toward $108K

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a mild pullback on January 16, 2026, trading around $95,500 after recently tagging a local high near $97,909 on January 14. The rally followed a mix of softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data and strong buying pressure from spot Bitcoin ETFs, both of which helped lift overall market sentiment.

While short-term price action reflects some cooling after the recent surge, the broader technical structure remains constructive, with the chart still favoring a continuation to the upside.

Bitcoin’s Positive ETF Inflows Signal Strong Institutional Demand

Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $100 million on January 15, extending a streak of strong capital inflows.

Earlier this month, ETFs saw even larger buying activity, with $843 million, $753 million, and $116 million in inflows recorded up to January 12. This consistent demand highlights growing confidence among ETF investors, even as BTC consolidates near recent highs.

At press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $125.18 billion, representing 6.58% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. Meanwhile, historical cumulative net inflows have reached $58.22 billion, reinforcing the idea that institutional participation continues to play a key role in supporting Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Retesting a Key Breakout Zone

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart structure has improved meaningfully. On the daily timeframe, BTC recently broke out of an ascending triangle, a classic bullish continuation pattern characterized by higher lows pressing against a horizontal resistance level.

The breakout occurred around $94,700, followed by a strong impulse move toward the $97,900 region. This surge confirmed buyer dominance and shifted market structure firmly back in favor of bulls.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading slightly below the 100-day moving average, appearing to drift lower as part of a breakout retest. Such retests are generally considered healthy in trending markets and often act as confirmation that previous resistance has flipped into support — provided price holds above the former consolidation range.

What the Chart Suggests Next for BTC?

The ongoing pullback remains constructive as long as buyers continue to defend the mid-$95,000 support zone. Holding above this area would suggest that market participants are using the dip to accumulate rather than exit positions.

If bullish momentum resumes from this level, the first key objective would be a reclaim of the 100-day moving average near $96,929, followed by a retest of the $97,900 local high. A decisive push above that level would further strengthen bullish control and validate the breakout–retest structure.

Based on the measured move projection of the ascending triangle breakout, a successful continuation could send Bitcoin toward the $108,000 region. This target aligns with the extension shown on the chart and represents roughly 13% upside from the breakout area.

Bottom Line

The broader setup continues to lean bullish. Positive ETF net inflows, improving macro sentiment, a confirmed bullish chart pattern, and rising retail caution together create an environment that favors continuation rather than a deeper reversal.

While short-term volatility is expected after a strong rally, Bitcoin’s structure suggests that any controlled pullbacks may serve as a foundation for the next leg higher — potentially putting the $100K milestone back into focus in the weeks ahead.

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