- XLM is trading at $0.1761, just below the 100 MA resistance at $0.1884 — the exact zone where TAO confirmed its reversal before a 137% rally from the bottom.
- Stellar's DeFi TVL surged 284% year-over-year to $172.5 million in 2025 — led by Blend (+682%), Aquarius (+451%), and Soroswap (+595%) — reflecting explosive ecosystem growth independent of price performance.
- The TAO Rounding Bottom fractal shows a -54.37% correction before a 100 MA reclaim that triggered +53.21% immediately and +137.72% from the bottom — XLM has corrected -46.67% and is now approaching the same confirmation level.
- A reclaim of the 100 MA at $0.1884 confirms the bullish setup — a breakout above the $0.2555 neckline targets $0.37, while a drop below $0.1361 invalidates the fractal entirely.
Stellar (XLM) is forming a technically compelling setup in March 2026 — mirroring the same Rounding Bottom structure that preceded Bittensor (TAO)’s 137% rally from its cycle low. With Stellar’s DeFi ecosystem posting 284% TVL growth in 2025 and price now trading just below a critical moving average resistance, the confluence of fundamental growth and technical structure is drawing fresh attention to one of crypto’s most established payment networks.
As of March 25, 2026, XLM is trading at $0.1761, up 7.24% in the past 24 hours but down 12.24% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of approximately $5.81 billion.
Despite a strong 7.24% recovery today, XLM remains under pressure — down 12.24% year-to-date and trading significantly below its recent highs. The market capitalization of $5.81 billion keeps XLM among the top 15 cryptocurrencies globally — a position that reflects its established network utility rather than speculative demand.
However, the combination of accelerating DeFi ecosystem growth and an increasingly constructive technical structure suggests XLM may be approaching a significant inflection point — one backed by real fundamental momentum rather than pure speculation.
Stellar DeFi TVL Grows 284% in 2025
While XLM’s price has underperformed in early 2026, the underlying Stellar ecosystem tells a dramatically different story — one of explosive growth that mirrors the fundamental backdrop of previous price recoveries.
According to Messari and DefiLlama data as of December 31, 2025, Stellar’s total DeFi TVL surged 284% year-over-year to $172.5 million — driven by broad-based growth across every major protocol on the network.
Protocol breakdown by TVL:
- Blend — $79.9M (+682% YoY) — The dominant protocol on Stellar by TVL, nearly doubling the size of the next largest protocol with explosive year-over-year growth that reflects Blend’s emergence as the primary lending and borrowing platform on the network.
- Aquarius — $36.3M (+451% YoY) — Stellar’s leading liquidity and governance protocol, more than quintupling its TVL across 2025 as DeFi activity on the network accelerated.
- Stellar DEX — $18.9M — The native decentralized exchange continuing to provide baseline liquidity infrastructure for the ecosystem.
- Lumenswap — $11.8M (-29% YoY) — The one protocol showing a decline, reflecting competitive pressure from newer liquidity venues on the network.
- FxDAO — $11.6M (+97% YoY) — Stellar’s stablecoin protocol nearly doubling TVL, reflecting growing demand for USD-pegged assets within the Stellar ecosystem.
- Soroswap — $4.8M (+595% YoY) — The fastest-growing protocol on the network in percentage terms, built on Stellar’s Soroban smart contract platform and reflecting the early momentum of Stellar’s programmable finance layer.
The 284% TVL growth across 2025 — occurring entirely during a period of XLM price weakness — is a significant signal. It confirms that Stellar’s ecosystem is growing on its own merits, independent of token price speculation, providing a durable fundamental foundation for any technical recovery.
TAO Fractal Hints at XLM Upside
The most compelling aspect of XLM’s current setup is a striking structural similarity to Bittensor (TAO)’s Rounding Bottom pattern that played out between December 2025 and March 2026 — a fractal that produced a 137.72% rally from its cycle low.
TAO — The Reference Fractal (Left Chart)
Between December 2025 and February 2026, TAO formed a clear Rounding Bottom — correcting -54.37% from its neckline resistance to form a rounded base, before gradually curving higher in the characteristic arc of a healthy bottoming process.
The critical confirmation came when TAO reclaimed its 100-day moving average — the exact trigger that released suppressed buying pressure into a powerful two-stage move:
- +53.21% immediately following the 100 MA reclaim
- +137.72% from the bottom — carrying TAO toward a decisive breakout above the $335.75 neckline resistance
XLM — The Current Setup (Right Chart)
Stellar (XLM) appears to be following the same structural path — with four key parallels immediately apparent from the side-by-side comparison:
Similar correction depth — -46.67% After forming a neckline resistance at $0.2555, XLM dropped -46.67% to a low of $0.1361 — a correction slightly shallower than TAO’s -54.37% but structurally identical in character. Buyers stepped in aggressively at $0.1361, forming the base of the Rounding Bottom.
Same Rounding Bottom arc forming Since the $0.1361 low, XLM’s price action has begun curving higher in the smooth arc that defines a healthy Rounding Bottom — mirroring the same gradual accumulation behavior seen in TAO before its explosive breakout.
Trading just below the 100 MA — $0.1884 XLM has rebounded to $0.1762 and is now trading just below the 100-day moving average at $0.1884 — the same zone where TAO confirmed its reversal. This is the most critical level on the chart — the exact point where the fractal either confirms or fails.
Same neckline resistance at $0.2555 The upper boundary of XLM’s Rounding Bottom sits at $0.2555 — the neckline that must be broken for the full pattern to confirm and the measured move target to activate.
What’s Next for XLM?
Bullish Scenario
- 100 MA at $0.1884 reclaimed — mirrors TAO’s exact confirmation trigger, signals the first leg of the fractal rally is underway
- $0.2555 neckline breakout — fully confirms the Rounding Bottom pattern and activates the measured move
- $0.37 breakout target — the measured move projection from the Rounding Bottom, equivalent to TAO’s 137% fractal rally from the bottom
- Broader Stellar ecosystem momentum — 284% DeFi TVL growth provides fundamental support for sustained buying pressure
Bearish Scenario
- Fails to reclaim 100 MA at $0.1884 — keeps XLM in an unconfirmed state, pattern remains incomplete
- Drop below $0.1361 — invalidates the fractal setup entirely, signals the Rounding Bottom has failed and deeper support levels are needed
- A breakdown below $0.1361 would suggest the current structure is not a bottoming pattern but a continuation of the broader downtrend
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Rounding Bottom pattern and why is it bullish?
A Rounding Bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a prolonged downtrend, characterized by price gradually curving higher in a smooth arc from a low point — resembling the letter U on a chart. It signals a gradual shift from selling pressure to buying accumulation. The pattern is confirmed when price breaks decisively above the neckline resistance — in XLM’s case the $0.2555 zone.
What is the TAO fractal and why is it relevant for XLM?
The TAO fractal refers to Bittensor’s Rounding Bottom pattern that formed between December 2025 and March 2026 — a -54.37% correction followed by a 100 MA reclaim that triggered a 137.72% rally from the bottom. XLM is currently forming an almost identical structure with a -46.67% correction and price now approaching the same 100 MA confirmation level — making TAO’s resolved fractal a useful reference for XLM’s potential trajectory.
What is the XLM price target if the fractal plays out?
A breakout above the $0.2555 neckline resistance would fully confirm the Rounding Bottom and activate a measured move target of $0.37 — equivalent to TAO’s 137% fractal rally from the bottom. The minimum confirmation required is a sustained daily close above the 100 MA at $0.1884.
What invalidates the XLM fractal setup?
A daily close below $0.1361 — the Rounding Bottom’s base — invalidates the fractal entirely and signals the current structure is not a bottoming pattern. Failure to reclaim the 100 MA at $0.1884 keeps the pattern unconfirmed without fully invalidating it.
Why does Stellar’s DeFi TVL growth matter for XLM?
Stellar’s 284% DeFi TVL growth to $172.5 million in 2025 confirms that the network’s ecosystem is expanding independently of token price performance. This fundamental backdrop — growing real economic activity on the network — provides a durable support case for XLM’s price recovery that goes beyond pure technical pattern recognition.
The opinions and market insights shared on CoinsProbe represent the views of individual authors based on prevailing market conditions at the time of publication. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk and volatility. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and seek professional financial advice before making investment decisions. CoinsProbe and its contributors do not accept responsibility for financial losses or decisions made based on published content.
CoinsProbe may publish sponsored articles, affiliate links, or promotional collaborations. All sponsored material is clearly labeled to maintain transparency with our audience. Our editorial decisions remain fully independent, and advertising partnerships do not influence reviews, rankings, or published opinions.
Since 2023, CoinsProbe has delivered reliable insights on cryptocurrency, blockchain, and digital assets. Our content is created by experienced researchers and analysts who follow strict editorial standards focused on accuracy, transparency, and credibility. Every article is carefully reviewed and verified using trusted sources and current market data. We provide unbiased analysis and timely updates covering everything from emerging crypto projects to major industry developments.
